ISIN IE00BMDKNW35TER 0.65%Assets 477 M €
Volatility 1y 61%Worst fall 1y −48%Since 2021-04-30
Themes · general research
Crypto equities and bitcoin products
Exchanges, brokers, a bitcoin treasury company, miners turning into AI data centres; bitcoin ETPs.
Can lose most
Can lose most of the money. Typical volatility 90%, typical worst fall −92%; 9 of 10 companies are more than half below their high. The companies move together (correlation 0.76): owning several of them is one bet.
These track bitcoin with leverage: the miners fell 92–96 % in the 2022 crash. Since 01.07.2026 Binance has been winding down EEA services; regulated bitcoin ETPs on Xetra/LSE are the EU route (crypto ≤ 2 % of a portfolio in the BlackRock range).
Typical volatilityMedian 1-year volatility of the theme's companies (annualised daily moves).
90%
Typical worst fallMedian of each company's worst peak-to-trough fall in five years (or since listing).
−92%
Typical distance from the high
−63%
Typical 1-year return
−52%
How to hold it in the EU
US-listed ETFs have no KID and cannot be bought by EU retail investors; these UCITS lines can. One fund line spreads the single-company risk.
ISIN IE000XAGSCY5TER 0.50%Assets 99 M €
Volatility 1y 71%Worst fall 1y −55%Since 2022-01-21
ISIN GB00BJYDH287TER 0.15%Assets 1,454 M €
Volatility 1y 40%Worst fall 1y −48%Since 2019-11-28
An ETP (exchange-traded note), not a UCITS fund: issuer risk, may need a complex-product permission.
| Line | Where |
|---|---|
| WBIT Xetra · EUR | IBKR |
| BTCW London Stock Exchange · USD | IBKR |
| BTCW Euronext Amsterdam · USD | IBKR |
ISIN CH1199067674TER 0.10%Assets 575 M €
Volatility 1y 41%Worst fall 1y −48%Since 2022-06-29
An ETP (exchange-traded note), not a UCITS fund: issuer risk, may need a complex-product permission.
Green: available; dashed with “?”: the venue is offered, check the line in the terminal; crossed out: not available.
US theme ETFs (WGMI, BLOK) are used only to measure the theme's risk: not buyable by EU retail.
The companies
Research data of 2026-10-15; where we score the company, its live Smart Score and red flags are shown.
| Ticker | Market cap | Revenue (y/y) | P/S | Volatility 1y | Worst fall | From high | 1 year | 12 m: ×2 / −50 % | Where | Our rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN Coinbase: crypto exchange and custody | 45.6 B$ | 6.0 B$ (−9%) | 8× | 71% | −91% | −59% | −52% | 30% / 18% | Freedom24IBKR | 1/10Caution. Share count growing 3–10 % a year over three years. More in the glossary → |
| HOOD Robinhood: retail broker with crypto | 90.9 B$ | 4.9 B$ (+38%) | 18× | 71% | −84% | −34% | −28% | 41% / 6% | Freedom24IBKR | 1/10 |
| MSTR Strategy: a leveraged bitcoin treasury | 55.0 B$ | 498 M$ (+8%) | 110× | 80% | −84% | −70% | −55% | 46% / 27% | Freedom24IBKR | 1/10Serious warning. Share count growing more than 10 % a year over three years. More in the glossary →Serious warning. Altman Z in the distress zone and negative free cash flow. More in the glossary →+1 |
| CRCL Circle: USDC stablecoin issuer; IPO June 2025 listed 2025-06 | 20.3 B$ | 2.9 B$ (+37%) | 7× | 94% | −81% | −70% | −42% | 0% / 44% | Freedom24IBKR | 1/10Caution. Share count growing more than 10 % a year over three years. More in the glossary → |
| GLXY Galaxy Digital: crypto bank and data centres | 7.0 B$ | 58.4 B$ (+24%) | n/m | 92% | −93% | −58% | −57% | 39% / 14% | Freedom24IBKR | 1/10Caution. Share count growing 3–10 % a year over three years. More in the glossary → |
| IREN bitcoin miner moving to AI cloud | 12.0 B$ | 707 M$ (+41%) | 17× | 106% | −96% | −60% | −52% | 45% / 12% | Freedom24IBKR | 1/10Serious warning. Share count growing more than 10 % a year over three years. More in the glossary →Caution. Negative free cash flow in at least two of the last three years. More in the glossary →+1 |
| CIFR Cipher: bitcoin miner moving to HPC hosting | 4.1 B$ | 191 M$ (+20%) | 22× | 111% | −96% | −66% | −51% | 43% / 9% | Freedom24IBKR | 1/10Serious warning. Share count growing more than 10 % a year over three years. More in the glossary →Caution. Negative free cash flow in at least two of the last three years. More in the glossary →+1 |
| RIOT bitcoin miner | 5.7 B$ | 675 M$ (+24%) | 8× | 88% | −93% | −66% | −30% | 19% / 13% | Freedom24IBKR | 1/10Serious warning. Share count growing more than 10 % a year over three years. More in the glossary →Serious warning. Altman Z in the distress zone and negative free cash flow. More in the glossary →+1 |
| CLSK CleanSpark: bitcoin miner | 2.4 B$ | 679 M$ (+8%) | 3× | 92% | −92% | −61% | −54% | 26% / 18% | Freedom24IBKR | 1/10Serious warning. Altman Z in the distress zone and negative free cash flow. More in the glossary →Caution. Negative free cash flow in at least two of the last three years. More in the glossary →+1 |
| MARA bitcoin miner | 3.2 B$ | 804 M$ (+1%) | 4× | 85% | −96% | −89% | −59% | 16% / 17% | Freedom24IBKR | 1/10Serious warning. Share count growing more than 10 % a year over three years. More in the glossary →Serious warning. Altman Z in the distress zone and negative free cash flow. More in the glossary →+2 |
Survivorship: the list is of companies known in 2026; earlier names that went bankrupt or were taken private are missing, so the “×2” share is an upper bound.
The theme as a basket
Equal weights, monthly rebalance, 08.08.2022–14.10.2026, compared with the S&P 500.
| Equal-weight basket | CAGR | Volatility 1y | Worst fall | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN MSTR HOOD GLXY | +49% | 67% | −57% | −44% |
| MARA RIOT CLSK CIFR IREN | +33% | 89% | −75% | −52% |
| BTC ETH SOL BNB XRP | +38% | 57% | −58% | −33% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +15% | 16% | −19% | +13% |
The window starts near the 2022 low, which flatters every basket. Past results do not predict future ones.
Base rates: how such bets usually end
Research results to keep in mind before any upside.
IPOs, 3 years38.5% of IPOs lost more than half in 3 years; 16.1% doubled, 0.5% grew 11× or more.
Jay Ritter, IPO statistics, Table 16e (9,195 IPOs 1975–2021), 23.03.2026
SPAC mergers−51% average 1-year return after a SPAC merger (2012–2024).
Ritter / Gahng–Ritter–Zhang, Table 15c (625 de-SPACs 2012–2024), 05.10.2026
Thematic ETFs−30% risk-adjusted over the first 5 years of specialised (thematic) ETFs.
Lottery stocks> 1% a month: how much “lottery” stocks (the biggest one-day jumps) underperform.
Where the gains come from4% of US stocks created all the net wealth since 1926.
Volatility drag≈ 46% a year is lost to volatility at 96% volatility: +40 % a year on average compounds to about −6 %.
standard approximation: geometric mean ≈ arithmetic mean − σ²/2 (our arithmetic)
Quantum computingAI infrastructure and chipsNuclear power and small reactorsSpaceRobotics and autonomyGenomics and biotech platforms
Source: Nasdaq historical closes 15.10.2021–14.10.2026; stockanalysis.com fundamentals 15.10.2026; justETF profiles and quotes 15.10.2026 · Research data of 2026-10-15 · Methodology and sources
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