Themes · general research

Genomics and biotech platforms

Sequencing, DNA synthesis, gene editing, AI drug discovery and diagnostics.

Can lose most

Can lose most of the money. Typical volatility 73%, typical worst fall −85%; 3 of 7 companies are more than half below their high.

The weakest basket of the last four years (+1 %). Gene-editing names are 50–92 % below their highs, with binary clinical risk.

Typical volatilityMedian 1-year volatility of the theme's companies (annualised daily moves).
73%
Typical worst fallMedian of each company's worst peak-to-trough fall in five years (or since listing).
−85%
Typical distance from the high
−50%
Typical 1-year return
−26%

How to hold it in the EU

US-listed ETFs have no KID and cannot be bought by EU retail investors; these UCITS lines can. One fund line spreads the single-company risk.

iShares Healthcare Innovation UCITS ETF
ISIN IE00BYZK4776TER 0.40%Assets 1,311 M € Volatility 1y 16%Worst fall 1y −12%Since 2016-09-08
LineWhere
2B78 Xetra · EURFreedom24IBKR
HEAL London Stock Exchange · USDFreedom24?IBKR
iShares Nasdaq US Biotechnology UCITS ETF
ISIN IE00BYXG2H39TER 0.35%Assets 1,016 M € Volatility 1y 22%Worst fall 1y −7%Since 2017-10-19
LineWhere
2B70 Xetra · EURFreedom24IBKR
BTEC London Stock Exchange · USDFreedom24?IBKR

Green: available; dashed with “?”: the venue is offered, check the line in the terminal; crossed out: not available.

US theme ETFs (ARKG) are used only to measure the theme's risk: not buyable by EU retail.

The companies

Research data of 2026-10-15; where we score the company, its live Smart Score and red flags are shown.

Volatility: 1 year; worst fall and best/worst: 5 years or since listing; “12 m” = the share of rolling 12-month windows that at least doubled / at least halved.
TickerMarket capRevenue (y/y)P/SVolatility 1yWorst fallFrom high1 year12 m: ×2 / −50 %WhereOur rating
ILMN
Illumina: DNA sequencing
41.0 B$4.5 B$ (+5%)9×48%−83%−35%+186%5% / 3%Freedom24IBKR8/10
TEM
Tempus AI: AI diagnostics
12.3 B$1.4 B$ (+50%)9×73%−60%−34%−28%4% / 0%Freedom24IBKR1/10Serious warning. Altman Z in the distress zone and negative free cash flow. More in the glossary →Caution. Negative free cash flow in at least two of the last three years. More in the glossary →+1
CRSP
CRISPR Therapeutics: gene editing (Casgevy)
4.9 B$13 M$ (−65%)363×58%−69%−50%−26%0% / 1%Freedom24IBKR1/10Caution. Negative free cash flow in at least two of the last three years. More in the glossary →Caution. Share count growing 3–10 % a year over three years. More in the glossary →
TWST
Twist: DNA synthesis
9.3 B$432 M$ (+19%)22×78%−92%−28%+392%27% / 18%Freedom24IBKR1/10Serious warning. Altman Z in the distress zone and negative free cash flow. More in the glossary →Caution. Negative free cash flow in at least two of the last three years. More in the glossary →+1
BEAM
Beam: base editing
2.4 B$156 M$ (+159%)15×72%−85%−76%−7%1% / 10%Freedom24IBKR1/10Serious warning. Share count growing more than 10 % a year over three years. More in the glossary →Caution. Negative free cash flow in at least two of the last three years. More in the glossary →+1
NTLA
Intellia: in-vivo gene editing
1.6 B$60 M$ (+13%)27×98%−95%−92%−52%1% / 29%Freedom24IBKR1/10Serious warning. Share count growing more than 10 % a year over three years. More in the glossary →Serious warning. Altman Z in the distress zone and negative free cash flow. More in the glossary →+1
RXRX
Recursion: AI drug discovery
2.0 B$55 M$ (−15%)37×74%−86%−82%−32%0% / 9%Freedom24IBKR1/10Serious warning. Share count growing more than 10 % a year over three years. More in the glossary →Serious warning. Altman Z in the distress zone and negative free cash flow. More in the glossary →+1

Survivorship: the list is of companies known in 2026; earlier names that went bankrupt or were taken private are missing, so the “×2” share is an upper bound.

The theme as a basket

Equal weights, monthly rebalance, 08.08.2022–14.10.2026, compared with the S&P 500.

Equal-weight basketCAGRVolatility 1yWorst fall1 year
CRSP NTLA BEAM RXRX TWST ILMN0%53%−59%+31%
S&P 500 (SPY)+15%16%−19%+13%

The window starts near the 2022 low, which flatters every basket. Past results do not predict future ones.

Base rates: how such bets usually end

Research results to keep in mind before any upside.

IPOs, 3 years38.5% of IPOs lost more than half in 3 years; 16.1% doubled, 0.5% grew 11× or more.

Jay Ritter, IPO statistics, Table 16e (9,195 IPOs 1975–2021), 23.03.2026

SPAC mergers−51% average 1-year return after a SPAC merger (2012–2024).

Ritter / Gahng–Ritter–Zhang, Table 15c (625 de-SPACs 2012–2024), 05.10.2026

Thematic ETFs−30% risk-adjusted over the first 5 years of specialised (thematic) ETFs.

Ben-David, Franzoni, Kim & Moussawi, RFS 36(3), 2023

Lottery stocks> 1% a month: how much “lottery” stocks (the biggest one-day jumps) underperform.

Bali, Cakici & Whitelaw, JFE 99(2), 2011

Where the gains come from4% of US stocks created all the net wealth since 1926.

Bessembinder, JFE 129(3), 2018

Volatility drag≈ 46% a year is lost to volatility at 96% volatility: +40 % a year on average compounds to about −6 %.

standard approximation: geometric mean ≈ arithmetic mean − σ²/2 (our arithmetic)

Source: Nasdaq historical closes 15.10.2021–14.10.2026; stockanalysis.com fundamentals 15.10.2026; justETF profiles and quotes 15.10.2026 · Research data of 2026-10-15 · Methodology and sources