Themes · general research

Themes where a few names multiply and most fell 70–95 % at some point

Quantum computing, AI infrastructure, nuclear and small reactors, space, robotics, crypto equities, genomics.

Numbers first. In most of these themes the typical company swings 80–110 % a year and has fallen 70–95 % at some point in five years; the S&P 500 swung 16% with a worst fall of −19%. The names that multiplied are visible because they survived.

Quantum computing

Can lose most

Companies building quantum computers and quantum-safe software, plus large companies with quantum units.

Typical volatility95%

Typical worst fall−82%

More than 50 % below their high9 / 12

WQTM · UCITSQNTM · UCITSmoves as one (ρ 0,87)

13 companies · 3 in our scored universe

AI infrastructure and chips

High risk

AI accelerators, memory, chip equipment, data-centre power and networking, GPU clouds.

Typical volatility66%

Typical worst fall−65%

More than 50 % below their high2 / 14

SMH · UCITSSEMI · UCITS

14 companies · 13 in our scored universe

Nuclear power and small reactors

Can lose most

Nuclear utilities, uranium miners and enrichers, small modular reactor developers.

Typical volatility79%

Typical worst fall−64%

More than 50 % below their high5 / 9

NUCL · UCITSURNU · UCITSmoves as one (ρ 0,79)

9 companies · 4 in our scored universe

Space

Can lose most

Launch, satellites, Earth observation, lunar landers, space infrastructure.

Typical volatility107%

Typical worst fall−86%

More than 50 % below their high6 / 6

JEDI · UCITS

6 companies · 2 in our scored universe

Robotics and autonomy

Can lose most

Surgical and warehouse robots, chip testing and cobots, autonomy and humanoid robots.

Typical volatility77%

Typical worst fall−72%

More than 50 % below their high2 / 5

RBOT · UCITSBOTZ · UCITS

5 companies · 3 in our scored universe

Crypto equities and bitcoin products

Can lose most

Exchanges, brokers, a bitcoin treasury company, miners turning into AI data centres; bitcoin ETPs.

Typical volatility90%

Typical worst fall−92%

More than 50 % below their high9 / 10

DAPP · UCITSBKCH · UCITSmoves as one (ρ 0,76)

10 companies · 6 in our scored universe

Genomics and biotech platforms

Can lose most

Sequencing, DNA synthesis, gene editing, AI drug discovery and diagnostics.

Typical volatility73%

Typical worst fall−85%

More than 50 % below their high3 / 7

HEAL · UCITSBTEC · UCITS

7 companies · 6 in our scored universe

Base rates: how such bets usually end

Research results to keep in mind before any upside.

IPOs, 3 years38,5% of IPOs lost more than half in 3 years; 16,1% doubled, 0,5% grew 11× or more.

Jay Ritter, IPO statistics, Table 16e (9,195 IPOs 1975–2021), 23.03.2026

SPAC mergers−51% average 1-year return after a SPAC merger (2012–2024).

Ritter / Gahng–Ritter–Zhang, Table 15c (625 de-SPACs 2012–2024), 05.10.2026

Thematic ETFs−30% risk-adjusted over the first 5 years of specialised (thematic) ETFs.

Ben-David, Franzoni, Kim & Moussawi, RFS 36(3), 2023

Lottery stocks> 1% a month: how much “lottery” stocks (the biggest one-day jumps) underperform.

Bali, Cakici & Whitelaw, JFE 99(2), 2011

Where the gains come from4% of US stocks created all the net wealth since 1926.

Bessembinder, JFE 129(3), 2018

Volatility drag≈ 46% a year is lost to volatility at 96% volatility: +40 % a year on average compounds to about −6 %.

standard approximation: geometric mean ≈ arithmetic mean − σ²/2 (our arithmetic)

How to read these pages

Everyone sees the same lists; nothing here looks at your portfolio.
“Where” is the EU-retail rule table: US shares at Freedom24 and IBKR; US-listed ETFs nowhere (no KID).
A UCITS theme ETF holds dozens of companies, often large ones: about a third to two thirds of the single-company volatility.
Companies of one hot theme move together: spread across themes, not inside one.
Size first: a speculative share is usually kept to a few per cent of the money, bought in parts, with a written rule when to trim.
Survivorship and hindsight: these are the names famous in 2026.
Prices: Nasdaq historical closes; fundamentals: stockanalysis.com; funds: justETF (all read 14–15.10.2026).

Research data of 2026-10-15 · Methodology and sources

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