ISIN IE000YU9K6K2TER 0,55 %Assets 1 422 M €
Volatility 1y 46 %Worst fall 1y −46 %Since 2022-06-24
Themes · general research
Space
Launch, satellites, Earth observation, lunar landers, space infrastructure.
Can lose most
Can lose most of the money. Typical volatility 107 %, typical worst fall −86 %; 6 of 6 companies are more than half below their high.
The most volatile theme (typical volatility above 100 %). Revenue is real and growing at Rocket Lab, Intuitive Machines, Redwire and Planet, but all of them lose money.
Typical volatilityMedian 1-year volatility of the theme's companies (annualised daily moves).
107 %
Typical worst fallMedian of each company's worst peak-to-trough fall in five years (or since listing).
−86 %
Typical distance from the high
−70 %
Typical 1-year return
−10 %
How to hold it in the EU
US-listed ETFs have no KID and cannot be bought by EU retail investors; these UCITS lines can. One fund line spreads the single-company risk.
Green: available; dashed with “?”: the venue is offered, check the line in the terminal; crossed out: not available.
US theme ETFs (UFO) are used only to measure the theme's risk: not buyable by EU retail.
The companies
Research data of 2026-10-15; where we score the company, its live Smart Score and red flags are shown.
| Ticker | Market cap | Revenue (y/y) | P/S | Volatility 1y | Worst fall | From high | 1 year | 12 m: ×2 / −50 % | Where | Our rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RKLB Rocket Lab: launch and spacecraft | 35,4 B$ | 769 M$ (+52 %) | 46× | 92 % | −78 % | −61 % | −10 % | 44 % / 10 % | Freedom24IBKR | 1/10Caution. Negative free cash flow in at least two of the last three years. More in the glossary →Caution. Share count growing 3–10 % a year over three years. More in the glossary →+1 |
| ASTS AST SpaceMobile: satellite-to-phone | 16,4 B$ | 115 M$ (+2 257 %) | 142× | 108 % | −86 % | −68 % | −53 % | 47 % / 12 % | Freedom24IBKR | Caution. Negative free cash flow in at least two of the last three years. More in the glossary →Note. Dividend or fundamental sources disagree beyond tolerance. More in the glossary → |
| PL Planet Labs: Earth-observation data | 5,1 B$ | 378 M$ (+44 %) | 14× | 92 % | −86 % | −73 % | −7 % | 35 % / 17 % | Freedom24IBKR | 1/10Caution. Negative free cash flow in at least two of the last three years. More in the glossary →Caution. Share count growing 3–10 % a year over three years. More in the glossary →+1 |
| LUNR Intuitive Machines: lunar landers and services | 2,5 B$ | 490 M$ (+117 %) | 5× | 111 % | −97 % | −87 % | −10 % | 26 % / 19 % | Freedom24IBKR | 1/10Serious warning. Altman Z in the distress zone and negative free cash flow. More in the glossary →Caution. Negative free cash flow in at least two of the last three years. More in the glossary →+2 |
| RDW Redwire: space infrastructure | 2,1 B$ | 426 M$ (+63 %) | 5× | 112 % | −87 % | −67 % | −5 % | 26 % / 15 % | Freedom24IBKR | 1/10Serious warning. Share count growing more than 10 % a year over three years. More in the glossary →Caution. Negative free cash flow in at least two of the last three years. More in the glossary → |
| FLY Firefly Aerospace: launch and landers; IPO August 2025 | 2,9 B$ | 287 M$ (+179 %) | 10× | 106 % | −72 % | −72 % | −43 % | 0 % / 40 % | Freedom24IBKR | 1/10Caution. Negative free cash flow in at least two of the last three years. More in the glossary →Caution. Net debt above 4× EBITDA or interest cover below 2×. More in the glossary → |
Survivorship: the list is of companies known in 2026; earlier names that went bankrupt or were taken private are missing, so the “×2” share is an upper bound.
The theme as a basket
Equal weights, monthly rebalance, 08.08.2022–14.10.2026, compared with the S&P 500.
| Equal-weight basket | CAGR | Volatility 1y | Worst fall | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RKLB ASTS PL LUNR RDW | +86 % | 82 % | −73 % | −5 % |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +15 % | 16 % | −19 % | +13 % |
The window starts near the 2022 low, which flatters every basket. Past results do not predict future ones.
Base rates: how such bets usually end
Research results to keep in mind before any upside.
IPOs, 3 years38,5 % of IPOs lost more than half in 3 years; 16,1 % doubled, 0,5 % grew 11× or more.
Jay Ritter, IPO statistics, Table 16e (9,195 IPOs 1975–2021), 23.03.2026
SPAC mergers−51 % average 1-year return after a SPAC merger (2012–2024).
Ritter / Gahng–Ritter–Zhang, Table 15c (625 de-SPACs 2012–2024), 05.10.2026
Thematic ETFs−30 % risk-adjusted over the first 5 years of specialised (thematic) ETFs.
Lottery stocks> 1 % a month: how much “lottery” stocks (the biggest one-day jumps) underperform.
Where the gains come from4 % of US stocks created all the net wealth since 1926.
Volatility drag≈ 46 % a year is lost to volatility at 96 % volatility: +40 % a year on average compounds to about −6 %.
standard approximation: geometric mean ≈ arithmetic mean − σ²/2 (our arithmetic)
Quantum computingAI infrastructure and chipsNuclear power and small reactorsRobotics and autonomyCrypto equities and bitcoin productsGenomics and biotech platforms
Source: Nasdaq historical closes 15.10.2021–14.10.2026; stockanalysis.com fundamentals 15.10.2026; justETF profiles and quotes 15.10.2026 · Research data of 2026-10-15 · Methodology and sources
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