ISIN IE000W8WMSL2TER 0,50 %Assets 303 M €
Volatility 1y 36 %Worst fall 1y −27 %Since 2025-08-27
Themes · general research
Quantum computing
Companies building quantum computers and quantum-safe software, plus large companies with quantum units.
Can lose most
Can lose most of the money. Typical volatility 95 %, typical worst fall −82 %; 9 of 12 companies are more than half below their high. The companies move together (correlation 0,87): owning several of them is one bet.
Revenue is tiny next to the valuations (price/sales 48–379× for the listed pure plays) and all of them lose money. Five new listings in 2026 (Infleqtion, Xanadu, Horizon via SPAC, Quantinuum by IPO, IQM via SPAC): all but one trade below their first close. Large caps with quantum units (IBM, Alphabet) and the UCITS quantum ETFs, which hold mostly such large caps, give the theme at about a third of the volatility.
Typical volatilityMedian 1-year volatility of the theme's companies (annualised daily moves).
95 %
Typical worst fallMedian of each company's worst peak-to-trough fall in five years (or since listing).
−82 %
Typical distance from the high
−63 %
Typical 1-year return
−70 %
How to hold it in the EU
US-listed ETFs have no KID and cannot be bought by EU retail investors; these UCITS lines can. One fund line spreads the single-company risk.
ISIN IE0007Y8Y157TER 0,55 %Assets 754 M €
Volatility 1y 28 %Worst fall 1y −24 %Since 2025-05-21
Green: available; dashed with “?”: the venue is offered, check the line in the terminal; crossed out: not available.
US theme ETFs (QTUM) are used only to measure the theme's risk: not buyable by EU retail.
The companies
Research data of 2026-10-15; where we score the company, its live Smart Score and red flags are shown.
| Ticker | Market cap | Revenue (y/y) | P/S | Volatility 1y | Worst fall | From high | 1 year | 12 m: ×2 / −50 % | Where | Our rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IONQ trapped-ion quantum computers and networking | 12,5 B$ | 246 M$ (+371 %) | 51× | 91 % | −90 % | −62 % | −62 % | 42 % / 15 % | Freedom24IBKR | 1/10Serious warning. Share count growing more than 10 % a year over three years. More in the glossary →Serious warning. Altman Z in the distress zone and negative free cash flow. More in the glossary →+1 |
| RGTI superconducting quantum computers | 3,9 B$ | 13 M$ (+68 %) | 292× | 96 % | −97 % | −79 % | −79 % | 35 % / 26 % | Freedom24IBKR | 1/10Serious warning. Share count growing more than 10 % a year over three years. More in the glossary →Caution. Negative free cash flow in at least two of the last three years. More in the glossary → |
| QBTS D-Wave: quantum annealing and gate-model research | 4,5 B$ | 12 M$ (−44 %) | 360× | 104 % | −97 % | −73 % | −70 % | 53 % / 15 % | Freedom24IBKR | 1/10Serious warning. Share count growing more than 10 % a year over three years. More in the glossary →Caution. Negative free cash flow in at least two of the last three years. More in the glossary → |
| QUBT photonic chips and a chip foundry | 1,4 B$ | 10 M$ (+3 635 %) | 146× | 89 % | −94 % | −75 % | −71 % | 26 % / 28 % | Freedom24IBKR | 1/10Serious warning. Beneish M-score above −1.78 together with very high accruals: earnings may be overstated. More in the glossary →Caution. Negative free cash flow in at least two of the last three years. More in the glossary → |
| ARQQ Arqit (UK): quantum-safe encryption software | 255 M$ | 1 M$ (+307 %) | 234× | 114 % | −100 % | −98 % | −74 % | 16 % / 50 % | Freedom24IBKR | Caution. Negative free cash flow in at least two of the last three years. More in the glossary →Caution. At least one reverse split in the last three years. More in the glossary → |
| QNT Quantinuum: trapped-ion computers; IPO June 2026, Honeywell holds ~49 % of the votes listed 2026-06 | 8,7 B$ | 23 M$ (+35 %) | 379× | 94 % | −60 % | −60 % | −45 % | — | Freedom24IBKR | Note. Less than one year of prices: not ranked yet. More in the glossary → |
| IQMX IQM (Finland): superconducting computers; de-SPAC July 2026 listed 2026-07 | 1,9 B$ | 39 M$ (+91 %) | 48× | 73 % | −36 % | −31 % | −26 % | — | Freedom24IBKR | |
| INFQ Infleqtion: neutral-atom computers and quantum sensors; de-SPAC February 2026 listed 2026-02 | 2,0 B$ | 42 M$ (+47 %) | 48× | 107 % | −56 % | −54 % | −33 % | — | Freedom24IBKR | Note. Less than one year of prices: not ranked yet. More in the glossary → |
| XNDU Xanadu: photonic quantum computers; de-SPAC March 2026 listed 2026-03 | 970 M$ | 7 M$ (+144 %) | 135× | 208 % | −91 % | −91 % | −72 % | — | Freedom24IBKR | Note. Less than one year of prices: not ranked yet. More in the glossary → |
| HQ Horizon Quantum: quantum software; de-SPAC March 2026 listed 2026-03 | 740 M$ | < 1 M$ (−100 %) | n/m | 160 % | −73 % | −64 % | +39 % | — | Freedom24IBKR | Note. Less than one year of prices: not ranked yet. More in the glossary → |
| IBM IBM: a large company with a quantum unit (IBM Quantum) | 214,7 B$ | 69,1 B$ (+8 %) | 3× | 51 % | −37 % | −31 % | −18 % | 0 % / 0 % | Freedom24IBKR | 5/10 |
| GOOGL Alphabet: a large company with a quantum unit (Google Quantum AI) | 4,25 T$ | 445,9 B$ (+20 %) | 10× | 31 % | −44 % | −14 % | +42 % | 7 % / 0 % | Freedom24IBKR | 5/10Caution. Accruals or the Beneish M-score are in the watch zone. More in the glossary → |
| HON Honeywell: holds ~49 % of Quantinuum's votes (price history broken by the 06.2026 spin-off) | 65,8 B$ | 38,1 B$ (+11 %) | 2× | — | — | — | — | — | Freedom24IBKR | 5/10Caution. Accruals or the Beneish M-score are in the watch zone. More in the glossary → |
Survivorship: the list is of companies known in 2026; earlier names that went bankrupt or were taken private are missing, so the “×2” share is an upper bound.
The theme as a basket
Equal weights, monthly rebalance, 08.08.2022–14.10.2026, compared with the S&P 500.
| Equal-weight basket | CAGR | Volatility 1y | Worst fall | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IONQ RGTI QBTS QUBT ARQQ | +41 % | 99 % | −80 % | −65 % |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +15 % | 16 % | −19 % | +13 % |
The window starts near the 2022 low, which flatters every basket. Past results do not predict future ones.
Base rates: how such bets usually end
Research results to keep in mind before any upside.
IPOs, 3 years38,5 % of IPOs lost more than half in 3 years; 16,1 % doubled, 0,5 % grew 11× or more.
Jay Ritter, IPO statistics, Table 16e (9,195 IPOs 1975–2021), 23.03.2026
SPAC mergers−51 % average 1-year return after a SPAC merger (2012–2024).
Ritter / Gahng–Ritter–Zhang, Table 15c (625 de-SPACs 2012–2024), 05.10.2026
Thematic ETFs−30 % risk-adjusted over the first 5 years of specialised (thematic) ETFs.
Lottery stocks> 1 % a month: how much “lottery” stocks (the biggest one-day jumps) underperform.
Where the gains come from4 % of US stocks created all the net wealth since 1926.
Volatility drag≈ 46 % a year is lost to volatility at 96 % volatility: +40 % a year on average compounds to about −6 %.
standard approximation: geometric mean ≈ arithmetic mean − σ²/2 (our arithmetic)
AI infrastructure and chipsNuclear power and small reactorsSpaceRobotics and autonomyCrypto equities and bitcoin productsGenomics and biotech platforms
Source: Nasdaq historical closes 15.10.2021–14.10.2026; stockanalysis.com fundamentals 15.10.2026; justETF profiles and quotes 15.10.2026 · Research data of 2026-10-15 · Methodology and sources
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