ISIN IE000M7V94E1TER %0,55Assets 1.775 M €
Volatility 1y %36Worst fall 1y −%32Since 2023-02-03
Themes · general research
Nuclear power and small reactors
Nuclear utilities, uranium miners and enrichers, small modular reactor developers.
Can lose most
Can lose most of the money. Typical volatility %79, typical worst fall −%64; 5 of 9 companies are more than half below their high. The companies move together (correlation 0,79): owning several of them is one bet.
Small-reactor developers are pre-revenue (Oklo $1.2 M of revenue on a $5.4 B valuation) and fell 76–87 % in the last 12 months after runs of 8–21×. Utilities and suppliers (Constellation, BWXT, Cameco) carry about half the drawdown.
Typical volatilityMedian 1-year volatility of the theme's companies (annualised daily moves).
%79
Typical worst fallMedian of each company's worst peak-to-trough fall in five years (or since listing).
−%64
Typical distance from the high
−%62
Typical 1-year return
−%50
How to hold it in the EU
US-listed ETFs have no KID and cannot be bought by EU retail investors; these UCITS lines can. One fund line spreads the single-company risk.
ISIN IE000NDWFGA5TER %0,65Assets 530 M €
Volatility 1y %44Worst fall 1y −%39Since 2022-04-20
ISIN IE0005YK6564TER %0,85Assets 310 M €
Volatility 1y %40Worst fall 1y −%40Since 2022-05-03
Green: available; dashed with “?”: the venue is offered, check the line in the terminal; crossed out: not available.
US theme ETFs (URA, NLR) are used only to measure the theme's risk: not buyable by EU retail.
The companies
Research data of 2026-10-15; where we score the company, its live Smart Score and red flags are shown.
| Ticker | Market cap | Revenue (y/y) | P/S | Volatility 1y | Worst fall | From high | 1 year | 12 m: ×2 / −50 % | Where | Our rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEG Constellation: nuclear power fleet | 99,0 B$ | 31,3 B$ (+%26) | 3× | %49 | −%51 | −%31 | −%27 | %20 / %0 | Freedom24IBKR | 1/10Caution. Negative free cash flow in at least two of the last three years. More in the glossary →Caution. Accruals or the Beneish M-score are in the watch zone. More in the glossary →+2 |
| CCJ Cameco: uranium miner with a Westinghouse stake | 35,4 B$ | 2,5 B$ (−%3) | 14× | %55 | −%40 | −%39 | −%12 | %12 / %0 | Freedom24IBKR | 2/10 |
| BWXT naval reactors and nuclear components | 12,3 B$ | 3,5 B$ (+%23) | 4× | %45 | −%44 | −%44 | −%32 | %3 / %0 | Freedom24IBKR | 1/10Caution. Dividend Safety below 40 points. More in the glossary → |
| LEU Centrus: uranium enrichment (HALEU) | 2,5 B$ | 474 M$ (+%8) | 5× | %89 | −%78 | −%72 | −%70 | %27 / %2 | Freedom24IBKR | 1/10Caution. Share count growing 3–10 % a year over three years. More in the glossary →Caution. Accruals or the Beneish M-score are in the watch zone. More in the glossary →+1 |
| UEC uranium miner (in-situ recovery) | 3,8 B$ | 37 M$ (−%44) | 103× | %79 | −%64 | −%62 | −%50 | %23 / %1 | Freedom24IBKR | Caution. Negative free cash flow in at least two of the last three years. More in the glossary →Caution. Share count growing 3–10 % a year over three years. More in the glossary →+1 |
| NXE NexGen: uranium developer (Canada) | 5,4 B$ | — | n/m | %56 | −%54 | −%42 | −%10 | %11 / %0 | Freedom24IBKR | 1/10Caution. Negative free cash flow in at least two of the last three years. More in the glossary →Caution. Share count growing 3–10 % a year over three years. More in the glossary → |
| OKLO Oklo: small modular reactors, pre-revenue | 5,4 B$ | 1 M$ | n/m | %94 | −%83 | −%83 | −%83 | %32 / %2 | Freedom24IBKR | 1/10Serious warning. Share count growing more than 10 % a year over three years. More in the glossary →Caution. Negative free cash flow in at least two of the last three years. More in the glossary →+1 |
| SMR NuScale: small modular reactor design | 2,5 B$ | 11 M$ (−%81) | 235× | %99 | −%89 | −%89 | −%87 | %28 / %25 | Freedom24IBKR | Serious warning. Share count growing more than 10 % a year over three years. More in the glossary →Caution. Negative free cash flow in at least two of the last three years. More in the glossary →+1 |
| NNE Nano Nuclear: micro-reactors, pre-revenue | 699 M$ | < 1 M$ | n/m | %90 | −%78 | −%77 | −%76 | %29 / %11 | Freedom24IBKR | Caution. Negative free cash flow in at least two of the last three years. More in the glossary →Caution. Share count growing more than 10 % a year over three years. More in the glossary → |
Survivorship: the list is of companies known in 2026; earlier names that went bankrupt or were taken private are missing, so the “×2” share is an upper bound.
The theme as a basket
Equal weights, monthly rebalance, 08.08.2022–14.10.2026, compared with the S&P 500.
| Equal-weight basket | CAGR | Volatility 1y | Worst fall | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKLO SMR LEU UEC NXE CCJ BWXT | +%36 | %52 | −%59 | −%56 |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +%15 | %16 | −%19 | +%13 |
The window starts near the 2022 low, which flatters every basket. Past results do not predict future ones.
Base rates: how such bets usually end
Research results to keep in mind before any upside.
IPOs, 3 years%38,5 of IPOs lost more than half in 3 years; %16,1 doubled, %0,5 grew 11× or more.
Jay Ritter, IPO statistics, Table 16e (9,195 IPOs 1975–2021), 23.03.2026
SPAC mergers−%51 average 1-year return after a SPAC merger (2012–2024).
Ritter / Gahng–Ritter–Zhang, Table 15c (625 de-SPACs 2012–2024), 05.10.2026
Thematic ETFs−%30 risk-adjusted over the first 5 years of specialised (thematic) ETFs.
Lottery stocks> %1 a month: how much “lottery” stocks (the biggest one-day jumps) underperform.
Where the gains come from%4 of US stocks created all the net wealth since 1926.
Volatility drag≈ %46 a year is lost to volatility at %96 volatility: +40 % a year on average compounds to about −6 %.
standard approximation: geometric mean ≈ arithmetic mean − σ²/2 (our arithmetic)
Quantum computingAI infrastructure and chipsSpaceRobotics and autonomyCrypto equities and bitcoin productsGenomics and biotech platforms
Source: Nasdaq historical closes 15.10.2021–14.10.2026; stockanalysis.com fundamentals 15.10.2026; justETF profiles and quotes 15.10.2026 · Research data of 2026-10-15 · Methodology and sources
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