ISIN IE00BMC38736TER 0,35 %Assets 8 241 M €
Volatility 1y 42 %Worst fall 1y −25 %Since 2020-12-01
Themes · general research
AI infrastructure and chips
AI accelerators, memory, chip equipment, data-centre power and networking, GPU clouds.
High risk
Can lose most of the money. Typical volatility 66 %, typical worst fall −65 %; 2 of 14 companies are more than half below their high.
The only theme where most names are profitable large companies with real revenue growth and near their highs. GPU clouds (CoreWeave, Nebius) and AI servers are the speculative edge.
Typical volatilityMedian 1-year volatility of the theme's companies (annualised daily moves).
66 %
Typical worst fallMedian of each company's worst peak-to-trough fall in five years (or since listing).
−65 %
Typical distance from the high
−26 %
Typical 1-year return
+29 %
How to hold it in the EU
US-listed ETFs have no KID and cannot be bought by EU retail investors; these UCITS lines can. One fund line spreads the single-company risk.
ISIN IE000I8KRLL9TER 0,35 %Assets 5 709 M €
Volatility 1y 37 %Worst fall 1y −29 %Since 2021-08-03
ISIN IE00BGV5VN51TER 0,35 %Assets 8 554 M €
Volatility 1y 22 %Worst fall 1y −14 %Since 2019-01-29
ISIN IE00BDVPNG13TER 0,40 %Assets 1 337 M €
Volatility 1y 30 %Worst fall 1y −20 %Since 2018-11-30
Green: available; dashed with “?”: the venue is offered, check the line in the terminal; crossed out: not available.
US theme ETFs (SMH) are used only to measure the theme's risk: not buyable by EU retail.
The companies
Research data of 2026-10-15; where we score the company, its live Smart Score and red flags are shown.
| Ticker | Market cap | Revenue (y/y) | P/S | Volatility 1y | Worst fall | From high | 1 year | 12 m: ×2 / −50 % | Where | Our rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA AI accelerators | 5,34 T$ | 303,0 B$ (+83 %) | 18× | 37 % | −66 % | −7 % | +18 % | 42 % / 2 % | Freedom24IBKR | 8/10Caution. Accruals or the Beneish M-score are in the watch zone. More in the glossary → |
| AVGO custom AI chips and networking | 1,65 T$ | 89,1 B$ (+49 %) | 19× | 46 % | −41 % | −28 % | −3 % | 22 % / 0 % | Freedom24IBKR | 3/10Caution. Share count growing 3–10 % a year over three years. More in the glossary →Caution. Accruals or the Beneish M-score are in the watch zone. More in the glossary → |
| TSM TSMC: chip foundry (ADR) | 1,97 T$ | 139,6 B$ (+31 %) | 14× | 39 % | −57 % | −11 % | +42 % | 11 % / 0 % | Freedom24IBKR | |
| AMD CPUs and GPUs | 931,9 B$ | 41,3 B$ (+40 %) | 23× | 68 % | −65 % | −12 % | +164 % | 21 % / 6 % | Freedom24IBKR | 5/10 |
| MU memory chips (HBM) | 1,03 T$ | 133,2 B$ (+256 %) | 8× | 80 % | −58 % | −25 % | +374 % | 27 % / 0 % | Freedom24IBKR | 9/10Caution. Dividend Safety below 40 points. More in the glossary →Note. Dividend or fundamental sources disagree beyond tolerance. More in the glossary → |
| ASML lithography machines (also Euronext Amsterdam) | 652,8 B$ | 40,3 B$ (+10 %) | 16× | 46 % | −57 % | −17 % | +68 % | 11 % / 0 % | Freedom24IBKR | 7/10 |
| VRT data-centre power and cooling | 85,8 B$ | 11,5 B$ (+26 %) | 7× | 65 % | −70 % | −41 % | +24 % | 53 % / 0 % | Freedom24IBKR | 4/10 |
| ANET data-centre networking | 246,5 B$ | 10,5 B$ (+33 %) | 23× | 54 % | −50 % | −10 % | +33 % | 12 % / 0 % | Freedom24IBKR | 6/10Caution. Accruals or the Beneish M-score are in the watch zone. More in the glossary → |
| CRDO Credo: high-speed connectivity | 33,7 B$ | 1,6 B$ (+165 %) | 21× | 96 % | −62 % | −41 % | +20 % | 53 % / 0 % | Freedom24IBKR | 4/10Caution. Share count growing 3–10 % a year over three years. More in the glossary → |
| ALAB Astera Labs: connectivity chips | 52,1 B$ | 1,2 B$ (+98 %) | 43× | 99 % | −64 % | −38 % | +50 % | 42 % / 0 % | Freedom24IBKR | 2/10Serious warning. Beneish M-score above −1.78 together with very high accruals: earnings may be overstated. More in the glossary →Caution. Share count growing more than 10 % a year over three years. More in the glossary → |
| SMCI AI servers | 23,5 B$ | 39,1 B$ (+78 %) | 1× | 95 % | −85 % | −70 % | −35 % | 40 % / 8 % | Freedom24IBKR | 1/10Serious warning. Beneish M-score above −1.78 together with very high accruals: earnings may be overstated. More in the glossary →Caution. Negative free cash flow in at least two of the last three years. More in the glossary →+1 |
| NBIS Nebius: GPU cloud | 51,0 B$ | 1,4 B$ (+507 %) | 37× | 107 % | −80 % | −35 % | +37 % | 35 % / 9 % | Freedom24IBKR | 1/10Caution. Negative free cash flow in at least two of the last three years. More in the glossary →Caution. Net debt above 4× EBITDA or interest cover below 2×. More in the glossary → |
| CRWV CoreWeave: GPU cloud | 36,3 B$ | 7,6 B$ (+115 %) | 5× | 94 % | −67 % | −64 % | −54 % | 18 % / 1 % | Freedom24IBKR | 1/10Serious warning. Altman Z in the distress zone and negative free cash flow. More in the glossary →Caution. Negative free cash flow in at least two of the last three years. More in the glossary →+1 |
| PLTR AI and data software | 482,9 B$ | 6,2 B$ (+79 %) | 78× | 58 % | −78 % | −4 % | +13 % | 52 % / 7 % | Freedom24IBKR | 4/10Caution. Share count growing 3–10 % a year over three years. More in the glossary →Caution. Accruals or the Beneish M-score are in the watch zone. More in the glossary → |
Survivorship: the list is of companies known in 2026; earlier names that went bankrupt or were taken private are missing, so the “×2” share is an upper bound.
The theme as a basket
Equal weights, monthly rebalance, 08.08.2022–14.10.2026, compared with the S&P 500.
| Equal-weight basket | CAGR | Volatility 1y | Worst fall | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA AVGO TSM AMD MU ASML | +64 % | 38 % | −32 % | +78 % |
| VRT ANET SMCI CRDO NBIS | +83 % | 52 % | −46 % | +20 % |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +15 % | 16 % | −19 % | +13 % |
The window starts near the 2022 low, which flatters every basket. Past results do not predict future ones.
Base rates: how such bets usually end
Research results to keep in mind before any upside.
IPOs, 3 years38,5 % of IPOs lost more than half in 3 years; 16,1 % doubled, 0,5 % grew 11× or more.
Jay Ritter, IPO statistics, Table 16e (9,195 IPOs 1975–2021), 23.03.2026
SPAC mergers−51 % average 1-year return after a SPAC merger (2012–2024).
Ritter / Gahng–Ritter–Zhang, Table 15c (625 de-SPACs 2012–2024), 05.10.2026
Thematic ETFs−30 % risk-adjusted over the first 5 years of specialised (thematic) ETFs.
Lottery stocks> 1 % a month: how much “lottery” stocks (the biggest one-day jumps) underperform.
Where the gains come from4 % of US stocks created all the net wealth since 1926.
Volatility drag≈ 46 % a year is lost to volatility at 96 % volatility: +40 % a year on average compounds to about −6 %.
standard approximation: geometric mean ≈ arithmetic mean − σ²/2 (our arithmetic)
Quantum computingNuclear power and small reactorsSpaceRobotics and autonomyCrypto equities and bitcoin productsGenomics and biotech platforms
Source: Nasdaq historical closes 15.10.2021–14.10.2026; stockanalysis.com fundamentals 15.10.2026; justETF profiles and quotes 15.10.2026 · Research data of 2026-10-15 · Methodology and sources
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