FIRE calculator: when could you live off your investments?
Your FIRE number from spending and a withdrawal rate, and how long saving might take — with the range of outcomes, in today's money.
Expected path at the end of each year (today's money)
Target: € 923,077. This is one expected path; real markets swing around it.
Assumptions
- Asset mix
- Growth
- Expected real return per year
- 3.8%
- Volatility per year
- 13.1%
- Savings rate
- 38%
Amounts in today's money (inflation removed), after typical fund costs and before taxes on your returns. The asset mix is an illustration for the simulation, not a recommendation.
- This is a simulation built from past market behaviour. It shows a range of possibilities, not a promise; real outcomes can fall outside it.
- Past performance does not predict future results. Backtests are hypothetical and usually look better than live results.
- Taxes depend on your residence and status; figures use a simplified model. Check with a tax adviser.
How the calculation works
Your FIRE number is annual spending divided by the withdrawal rate: 30,000 at 3.25 % needs about 923,000. Lower rates are safer for longer retirements.
The time to get there comes from our goal planner: monthly savings are invested in the chosen asset mix with long-run return assumptions in today's money, after typical fund costs. The free version shows the expected path; Invest Pro simulates thousands of market paths and reports the lowest probability across data sets.
The result is a planning range, not a promise. Spending, returns and inflation change; review the plan every year.
Questions and answers
Is 4 % a safe withdrawal rate?
It comes from 30-year US history. For 40–50-year retirements and internationally diversified portfolios, research points to about 3–3.5 %; flexible spending (cutting after bad years) allows a higher start.
Why are amounts in today's money?
Inflation is removed so the target keeps meaning the same lifestyle. A nominal figure would look bigger but buy less.
What does the asset mix change?
More equities raise both the expected return and the swings. The mixes here are simple illustrations (global equities, emerging markets, euro bonds, cash), not a recommendation.
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