Kuyeyela kwa NVIDIA Mazubaano: Kuyanda kwa AI Chip aZyakuyanda

Kulanga-langa nzila yakuyanda chipekupeku cha AI

Chintu chipati chipa kuti kube kweezyeezya kwa nvidia mazubaano nkuyuma kwa AI chip demand cycle. Malipooti atondezya kuti kweezyeezya kwamali aajanika kwiinda mukubelesya AI kwainda kuyeyela kwakaindi kwabasimakwebo bapati. Ikubeleka kwa Micron kwachiindi chifwiifwi, ooko kwakavwula zintu zyakasyaala antoomwe abusolozi busimide, nchintu chitondezya buumi bwazintu zyoonse. Eelyo basikupanga ma memory a logic chip nobaamba kuti kuli oda ziyumu, zisinizya kuti basikupanga ma hyperscalers abasikuula bapati bali mukuula zibelesyo zyakugwasyilizya mwaambo mupati akuyungizya data center.

Ooku kuzyunguluka kwakuyanda kupa kuti kube ntaamu ya NVDA yamuulo. Kakutali mbuli makwebo aakaindi aabelesya minchina aapenga aawo zintu nozivwula, AI cycle yamazubaano yeendelezyegwa akubula nguzu. Ma data masena alikukatazyigwa kuzumanana aazyeezyo ziyandikana akuyiisya. Ooku kubula kugwasyilizya nguzu zyakubikka muulo wa NVIDIA. Nokuba boobo, basambazi beelede kukkala kabacenjela. Kuti data yakupanga yatondezya kucheya naakuti kukomena kwakubelesya mali mumakumbi kwacheya, muulo wa AI chips ulakonzya kucheya. Chitondeezyo chiliwo lino nchibotu, pesi chiyeeme akuzumanana kwakuzuminwa kwamakwebo.

Kubeleka kwaChibaka aKuswaangana

NVIDIA taisambali mubusena butakwe chintu. Muulo wayo uliswaangene kapati acibeela cipati ca semiconductor alimwi a Nasdaq 100. Makani aamazubaano atondezya kuti makwebo aa semiconductor akatanta akaambo kakuti mali aa Treasury akaceya kuzwa ciindi mweelwe wamyaka iili kkumi niyakatanta kusika aciimo cakwe cisumpukide kapati kuzwa mu 2002. Ooku kujatana aakati kamali aakubelesya alimwi amakwebo aatekkinoloji kwaambilizyigwa. Kuvwola kupati kupa kuti nzila zimbi zyakujana mali zitacinci zibotezye, akugwisya mali kuzwa kumakwebo aakomena. Eelyo mpindu noziwa, mbuli mbozyakachitika muchiiyo chainda, mali alajokela ku tech.

Kubikkilizya makkampani mapya muma indices mapati akwalo kulajatikizya kuchincha kwazibeela. Nikuba kuti NVDA ili kale mpati, kusanduka kwa Nasdaq 100 amakkampani aabikkila maanu ku AI kuyumya bweendelezi bwachibaka eechi. Makkampani aali mbuli Twilio aanjila mu S&P 500 antoomwe a Moderna aanjila mu Nasdaq-100 atondezya mbuli basikwaaba index mbobazuminana a tech-AI narrative. Ku NVDA, eezi zyaamba lugwasyo lwambunga luzumanana. Mali aatakwe mulimo aatobela ma indices aaya ayelede kubamba NVDA, kupa ziyandika zyabupange kakunyina kulanga kucinca kwamizeezo kwachiindi chifwiifwi.

Lugwasyo lwakucinca kwa Index

Kubambulula kwa index kulakonzya kuleta kuchincha kwachiindi chifwiifwi, asi nzila yachiindi chilamfu ya NVDA ilazumanana kugwasyilizyigwa akubikkilizyigwa kwayo muzibeela zipati. Mbuli AI mboibambulula Nasdaq 100, kulema kwa NVIDIA kulasinizya kuti kufumbwa kutanta kwa index kulasumpula NVDA munzila iiteendelani. Mbubwenya buyo, kululamikwa kwamusika kwakauma NVDA loko akaambo ka beta yayo. Basambazi beelede kulangisisya makani aakubikkilizya index kuti bajane mpindu yakujana mali, pesi chintu chipati ncha AI hardware cycle.

Kubala data yapulatifomu kuti ujane zintu zipati

Zyakuyeeyela zya AI zyapulatifomu yesu zipa muzeezo uujatikizya buumi bwamusika ooyo uuzuzikizya buvwuntauzi bwa NVDA. Tulabona zilengwa ziindene-indene mumasena aasiyene-siyene eezyo zipa kuti kube kulangila kwachiindi chifwiifwi kwamakwebo aatekkinoloji. Muchibaka chamali, mbunga zilimbuli Agricultural Bank of China (Ticker 1288) antoomwe a ICBC (Ticker 1398) zitondezya zyeelelo zitazungaani, zitondezya kuti mali mumabbanki teensi nchintu chipati chisinkila kubikka mali mumakwebo. Mali aatazungaani kanjikanji alasaanguna kubelesya mali mabotu kumakkampani aatekkinoloji.

Mumakkampani aamanguzu, makkampani aali mbuli China Southern Airlines (Ticker 1055) antoomwe a China Shenhua Energy (Ticker 1088) atondezya kukkalikana kweendelezyegwa azintu. Kukkalilila kwanguzu nchintu chipati loko kumilimu ya data center, eeyo iibelesya manguzu manji. Aawo muulo wamanguzu nuuzumanana kuzyibwa, basimakwebo balakonzya kuchita milimu mipati yakuyaka kakunyina kuyoowa kumana kwamali. Eezi zilagwasyilizya muzeezo wakuyanda kwa NVDA. Kuya kunembo, chibaka chabusilisi, chiimininwa amakkampani aali mbuli Sinopharm Group (Ticker 1099) antoomwe a CSPC Pharmaceutical (Ticker 1093), chitondezya kusima, kutondezya kuti lusyomo lwamusika luboola muzibeela zyoonse zyakukwabilila azyakukomena.

Chibaka chamaanda, kubikkilizya a Henderson Land (Ticker 12) antoomwe a CK Asset Holdings (Ticker 1113), chipa luzibo lwakulanga mweelwe wampindu. Mbuli mpindu ya Treasury mboiyaabuceya, makwebo aamaanda kanjikanji alakkalilila. Ooku kukkalikana kulacesya ntenda zyabweende bwazintu, akuzumizya basikubikka mali kuti babweze ntenda zyiingi mumakwebo aakomena mbuli NVDA. Kuswaangana kwazibeela eezi kutondeezya kuti muswaangano uuliko lino ulajatikizya zintu zyiingi, kutali buyo zyintu ziche. Ooku kulampa kulagwasyilizya kuzumanana kwa NVDA muchiindi chifwiifwi.

Sector Synergies

Kuswaangana aakati kakukkalikana kwanguzu akukomena kwatekkinoloji kulibonya mu data yesu. Zibelesyo zilimbuli CK Infrastructure Holdings (Ticker 1038) zitondezya kubeleka kabotu, kusinizya kuti zibelesyo ziyandika mukuyungizya AI zilakonzya kubelesegwa. Ooku kubelekela antoomwe kulacesya ntenda iibonwa yakubikka mali mumazina aatekkinoloji aakomena kapati. Eelyo zyintu zyakubelesya azyakupangapanga noziyumu, mali aapegwa kuli basololi bazyatekkinoloji mbuli NVIDIA alazumizyigwa akaambo kazyintu zilibonya, kutali buyo kweezyeezya.

Zitondezyo Zyakubelesya aMiulo

Kuti kakusambala kwachiindi chifwiifwi, kweezyeezya kwa nvidia sunu kutondeezya kuzumanana kwakutanta kwa Nadaq. Zitondeezyo zyabusongo zitondezya kuyaka kwanguzu aawo makwebo naazwa mumasena aayungizyidwe. Kuvwuntauzya kwabunji bwazintu kulasinizya kuti basikuula bali mumakkampani balabeleka muchiindi chakucheya, kupa lugwasyo. Kuyungizya kwamazubaano kwama chip stocks, kwakachitwa amali mabotu kuzwa kuli beenzinyina, kwakapa kuti kube ntenda. Basikubikka mali bali mukunjila mu NVDA mbuli chitondezyo cha AI yoonse.

Nokuba boobo, kucinca-cinca kuchili chintu. WSJ yakaamba kuti buzuba bwamakwebo bwakali butakwe luumuno antoomwe akusambala kwa Treasury kwakali kuchincha. NVDA ilabikkila maanu kukusanduka ooku kupati. Chitondeezyo chakuula chili kabotu kufwumbwa buyo kuti chiyobwedo chili atala aamweelwe wacho wamazubaano. Kuti mpindu yatanta alimwi, kujana mpindu kulakonzya kuchitika. Basambazi beelede kubikka nzila zyakulesya kusweekelwa kutegwa bakonzye kweendelezya ntenda eeyi. Muulo uubikkidwe mumviki zisyoonto zitobela ulasololelwa akuzumanana kwakucheya kwazyakulya akuzumanana kwakujana mpindu kuzwa kuchibaka cha semiconductor.

Ntenda kuBull Case

Nikuba kuti nzila ziliwo lino zigwasya NVDA, basikubikka mali beelede kuziba ntenda ziliwo. Chintu chipati chilibilisya nkufwambaana kwakubambulula mweelwe wampindu. Ikuti naa mpindu ya Treasury yajokela kumagolelo aamyaka myiingi, muulo wa NVDA ulakonzya kucheya. Zitokwe zikomena kapati zilajatikizyigwa kapati akutanta kwamiulo akaambo kakusyoma mpindu zyakumbele. Kuyungizya waawo, kufumbwa chitondezyo chakucheya kwakubelesya AI mumakkampani chilakonzya kuleta kululamika.

Kutamvwanana kwatwaambo twacisi akunyongana kwakutola zintu azyalo zilakonzya kuleta ntenda. Kupanga ma semiconductor kuli munyika yoonse alimwi kulabikkila maanu kuzyintu zyakubelesya. Kufwumbwa kunyongana mukusambala kwama chip naakuti zintu zitabelesyegwi kulakonzya kunyonganya busolozi bwakujana mali. Nikuba kuti data iiliwo lino itondezya manguzu, eezyi zintu zyaanze zilakonzya kuchincha kulimvwa mubuzuba bomwe. Nzila ziindene-indene, zyakulanga-langa zyoonse zyobile zibeela zyatekkinoloji azyamakkampani, zilagwasya kuchesya ntenda eezyi. Chizuminano chiliwo lino chili kabotu, asi kuchenjezya kuyandika akaambo kakusumpuka kwamiulo.

Chitondeezyo Chamamanino Chakusambala

Chitondeezyo cha NVDA chachiindi chifwiifwi nchakuyaambele, chigwasyilizyigwa amuwo muyumu wakumbele abukkale buli kabotu. Kujokela musule kwa Treasury yields akuyanda kwa AI kwapa kuti kube busena buli kabotu bwakukomena kwatekkinoloji. Basikubikka mali beelede kulanga-langa mali ngobajana kuzwa kuli beenzinyina mbuli Micron kuti basinizye kuti kuli kuyandika. Kufumbwa buyo kuti kujatana kwa semiconductor kwazumanana mpawo mpindu zyazumanana, NVDA ilakonzya kuchita obotu kwiinda. Nokuba boobo, kkala kochenjede kukucinca kupati ooko kukonzya kuchincha zyintu zyakachitika ino-ino.

Chidziwiso: Eezyi zintu zyakuyeeyela zyakabambwa anzila zya AI kweendelanya anzila zya data zyamazubaano anzila zyakachitika chiindi. Tabasyomezyegwi kuti balapegwa lulayo lwamali. Bukkale bwamumisika bulacinca chakufwambaana, mpawo bukkale bwamuntu umwi awumwi uubikka mali bulacinca. Lyoonse kochita bweendelezi bwako omwini mpawo uyeeye mbuli mbokonzya kuliyumya muntenda kotanasala zyakubikka mali.

Mibuzyo iibuzyigwa chiindi chiingi

Sena zintu zya NVIDIA nzibotu kuula lino?

Kuvwuntauzya kwalino kutondeezya kuti kuli chitondezyo chakuula akaambo kakuyanda kupati kwa AI akukkazika moyo kwa Treasur. Nokuba boobo, kuchincha kwampindu kulakonzya kuchincha makwebo aatekkinoloji chakufwambaana, aboobo langa kabotu-kabotu zyintu zicitika mumakwebo.

Ino muulo wa NVDA uli buti mumviki eeyi?

Zyakuyanda zyachiindi chifwiifwi zyeendelana akweenda kwa Nasdaq. Kuti makwebo aa semiconductor azumanana kuyaambele mpawo mpindu kazili munsi, NVDA ilalangilwa kuzumanana kuya mujulu kakunyina lugwasyo lusyoonto.

Ino mpindu ya Treasury ilajatikizya biyeni makwebo aa NVIDIA?

NVIDIA, mbuli nzila iikomena kapati, ilabikkila maanu kukuvwola kwamakwebo. Kuvwola kusyoonto kanjikanji kulasumpula mpindu zyatekkinoloji kwiinda mukucheesya mweelwe wakugwisya muulo wakumbele, mpawo kuyungizya kuvwola kulakonzya kusinikizya muulo wamali.

Nkaambo nzi ma chip stocks nchalikuyaambele mazubaano?

Ma Chip stocks alikuyaambele akaambo kamalipooti mapati aazwa kuli basimakwebo antoomwe akucheya kwa Treasury yields. Ooku kusanganya kupa kuti kube kulimvwa kabotu kuchibeela choonse cha semiconductor, kubikkilizya a NVIDIA.