Treasury Yields and Curve Analysis: AI Recession Prediction Using Bond Markets

The Treasury yield curve is one of the most reliable recession indicators in financial history.

Yield Curve Inversion Signals

When short-term rates exceed long-term rates, recession historically follows within 12-18 months.

Term Premium Decomposition

This separation helps distinguish between rate expectations and risk compensation, providing clearer economic signals.

Fed Policy Impact

Federal Reserve decisions ripple through the entire yield curve.