Treasury Yields and Curve Analysis: AI Recession Prediction Using Bond Markets
2026-03-28 · Market Analysis
The Treasury yield curve is one of the most reliable recession indicators in financial history.
Yield Curve Inversion Signals
When short-term rates exceed long-term rates, recession historically follows within 12-18 months.
Term Premium Decomposition
This separation helps distinguish between rate expectations and risk compensation, providing clearer economic signals.
Fed Policy Impact
Federal Reserve decisions ripple through the entire yield curve.